The Chances Of Hitting 180

Leagues that play 301 games with a double start often don’t seem to have many players hitting 180’s in the course of a season. There is in my opinion one simple reason for this and it is not because all the better players play in 501 leagues. On the contrary I will state that the better the player is the less chances he has of hitting a 180 in a game of 301.

With 501 it is generally a straight start but with 301 it is invariably a double start. Obviously a player’s first 3 darts are for a double and assuming he is a good player he hits one maybe first, second or even third dart. Most of the better players tend to go for a large double to start, but even if a good player goes for a double ten and hits it second dart he is likely to score at least 40. A bigger double or quicker start will make a bigger score. With his next three darts then he is likely to have between 261 and 221 (if he breaks with double twenty, twenty and twenty)  left to throw at. This means that he can go for a 180 with his next three darts. If he misses he is likely to hit at least 60 being a good player, or more if he hits a treble twenty. 60 from 221 leaves 161 and 81 from 261 will leave 180. With anything less than 182 he just can’t hit a 180 to leave a double finish. So therefore a good player is unlikely to get more than one chance with 3 darts with which he can go for a 180 per leg of 301. If he is really good and breaks with more than 118 (Shanghai on twenties is 120) he won’t have any darts at 180.

A poor player on the other hand might break with anything from double one upwards with any dart. A small score with the break on his last dart might be 20 leaving 281. Then he could go for 180. If he misses he is more likely to score a 26. (always a popular shot) This would leave 255 and again he would have a chance to go for 180. He is likely to miss again and might hit a couple of 5’s and a one. This would leave 244 and again he would have a chance to go for 180. He could get lucky and hit a good score of 41 which would leave 203. Again he would have a chance to go for a 180, but this would very likely be his last shot at it. This suggests that a poor player is far more likely to have somewhere in the region of perhaps 4 chances with 12 darts per game of 301 at a 180 score, whereas a good player is likely to get only one chance with 3 darts if he does not have a really big break and if he does he won’t get any chances at all!